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| “Network analysis and data mining will claim their first major political scalp.” (comment) | ||
| recommended by 2 users | 2010 | adw on: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? | aged well | predictions | original thread | | ||
| adw on Jan 1, 2010 | on: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? | view on HN | ||
| 2 users recommended this comment. What they said: |
|
DevKoala Jan 3, 2020 | on: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010) | context | aged well
> Network analysis and data mining will claim their first major political scalp. That'll be a watershed moment: the politics of information are going to start being the kind of core liberal issue that environmental issues currently are. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025703 This poster saw it. |
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kick Jan 3, 2020 | on: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010) | context | aged well
I ranked all of these, and gave the rate of correct predictions. I might have missed one or two, though. ----- Winners: 'icefox https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026549 ChromeOS. Based on Linux kernel. Entirely different security system/deployment/upgrades, no legacy applications. 3/3 percentage correct: 100% 'jaquesm https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025696 Pretty sure all are correct, though can't find statistics for the first on hand. 5/5 percentage correct: 100% 'jacquesm https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025709 laarc, though laarc failed. 1/1 percentage correct: 100% 'adw https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025703 No explanation needed. 1/1 percentage correct: 100% 'slashed https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025702 1/1 percentage correct: 100% No explanation necessary. 'jeromec https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026044 Correct. Would have been incorrect if U.S. didn't come back into Iran to start another war. Details a bit blurry. 1/1 percentage correct: 100% 'jsz0 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026022 No explanation needed. 2/2 percentage correct: 100% 'antirez https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025765 No explanation needed. 1/1 percentage correct: 100% 'rms https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025758 This happened, despite being far away. 1/1 percentage correct: 100% 'slvrspoon https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025943 Progress with cancer happened, wasn't a big thing. Growth of a Chinese middle class with a voice and independence didn't happen. Nuclear detonation didn't happen. Achievements in energy tech happened. Wi-fi data collection on everything happened, though not main change. Internet and software a snore; happened. Privacy did become an issue for the common user. 4/7 percentage correct: 57% 'IsaacL https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1027093 Facebook successful. Facebook IPO happened in time allotted. Twitter became profitable. Microsoft didn't go anywhere. Microsoft grew, claim of shrinking denied. Desktop market shrunk. Internet Explorer went away. Point denied. Mobile phones have more or less replaced computers for most average users. Point denied. Mobile phones did cause most of the big changes during this decade. More successful startups. Startups with Facebook/YouTube proportions didn't happen. Point denied. Huge startups built on phones and web tech did happen. Startup ecosystem has gotten worse. Point denied. "Startup instead of college" has gotten more intense. Languages slower than Ruby caught on. Was not because of Moore's Law but because developers have the attention span of small rodents. Point denied. Moore's Law is dead. Deal to limit warming did happen, though it was in six years, not five, and far less than what is claimed here. Point denied. Traditional retail gave way to delivery; large shops weren't impacted as much as small, and the incentives were wrong. Point denied. China made no attempt to become democratic. Rule of law in China got stronger, though civil liberties did not increase. Point denied. Internet crackdowns have continued and increased in China. 12/21 percentage correct: 57% 'iamwil https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025885 Eugenics dating service from Harvard students was announced just a few days ago. 1/2 percentage correct: 50% 'DaniFong https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026260 Solar and wind are now cheaper than alternatives. Is not sold to customers "when they want it, how they want it." 1/2 percentage correct: 50% 'bioweek https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026279 Ubiquitous free internet did happen, wasn't a meshnet. 1/2 percentage correct: 50% 'borism https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025861 Web did not cease to be the delivery platform of choice for applications, it's gotten worse. Point denied. Internet has become more restricted. 1/2 percentage correct: 50% 'zitterbewegung https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025906 PMCs have gotten more prevalent. Have not gotten more popular. 1/2 percentage correct: 50% 'brfox https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025855 Gene-therapy did become slightly more commonplace. Genome sequencing for chronic conditions is now commonplace (wouldn't have counted this if 'brfox didn't elaborate on the prediction in same thread). 2/5 percentage correct: 40% 'tommorris https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025771 GNU/Linux on the desktop didn't really happen, but Linux on the desktop did (ChromeOS). Widespread adoption of LISP by developers sort of happened (Clojure), despite much adoption, still limited reach. Cheaper hardware happened, and is the only thing I'm giving a full point for. The rest didn't really happen. 1/6 percentage correct: 16.7% ----- Losers: 'varjag https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025740 Didn't happen. 0/1 percentage correct: 0% '10ren https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026574 Nothing right, though first two slightly mirror events that happened ("you inside" = VR; mobile devices have specialized processors like "organs in the body," though multi-core is far from dead). 0/4 percentage correct: 0% 'erikstarck https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026088 Nothing accurate barring possibly the Google example, though not even it is really right. 0/3 percentage correct: 0% 'mojuba https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025706 Entirely wrong, unfortunately. 0/a-bunch percentage correct: 0% 'lallysingh https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025783 No substantial change in political bases, slight left-swing for demographic mentioned. 0/1 percentage correct: 0% 'artagon https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025790 Entirely wrong. 0/6 percentage correct: 0% 'andrewcooke https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025727 None of this was correct, though AMD did make steps in that direction, and so did IBM/Sony. 0/2 percentage correct: 0% 'samuel https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025853 It hasn't yet. 0/1 percentage correct: 0% ----- Honorable mentions: 'paraschopra https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025736 Half-point given because tablets rose to prominence and serve as partial e-Book readers, though they also killed dedicated ones. .5/1 percentage correct: N/A 'Scott_MacGregor https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1026255 1. His company failed. 2. Didn't happen. 3. Half-point given; free for everyone, usually privately-funded. 4. It's gotten worse. 5. No explanation necessary. 6. Didn't happen. 7. It's gotten worse. .5/7 percentage correct: N/A 'zacharypinter https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025867 All claims basically correct, though flawed. Not taking into final % calculation or ranking for that reason. 4/5 percentage correct: N/A 'motters https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025738 Both predictions correct with large picture, both wrong on most details. Half-point awarded for each. 1/2 percentage correct: N/A 'motters https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025817 Problems with pensions happened, were not as bad as claimed. .5/1 percentage correct: N/A |
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Network analysis and data mining will claim their first major political scalp.
That'll be a watershed moment: the politics of information are going to start being the kind of core liberal issue that environmental issues currently are.